UNPREDICTABILITY

Indian Monsoons are a complex mechanism. It involves a number of factors, and their effect individually and altogether. In fact predicting the rainfall pattern has become increasingly difficult with time due to more and more factors being added with advancement in research. But recently, India has been facing extremes of climatic conditions. The world at large is facing the same actually and the effects vary a lot from region to region. The main culprit is GLOBAL WARMING! And the worst affected will be the not so developed countries of the tropical regions with poor infrastructure to absorb such shocks. India is in the danger zone!


Here's the list of all the predictable factors :-

1) Jet Streams.

2) El Nino Southern Oscillation.

3) Indian Ocean Dipole.

For those enthusiastic about the details, I would recommend that you google these factors and their effect individually, and altogether.


Global warming has given rise to a very unpredictable weather pattern. Ideally, this year India should have received lesser rainfall compared to other years as this was an El Nino year. But is that really happening?


Let us analyze the cause from it's roots. Our summer season was marred by heat waves throughout the country. Even if the rise in global temperature is kept with the 2 degree Celsius limit, on an average the Earth will experience 60% more rain extreme rain events and 27 extremely hot days! The extremities will go haywire if the annual rise in temperature is about 3 degree Celsius, that can easily be possible with the current levels of GHG emissions! Well now we know what's heating our summers here!


A study shows warming of the atmosphere increases the number of times temperatures reach extreme levels and evaporated more water from the oceans. It is from this hotter, wetter background that extreme weather events will emerge. So actually, this heat wave triggered an extreme low pressure condition on the subcontinent causing good amount of rainfall in spite of the El Nino phenomenon prevailing.


This year tropical cyclones delayed the burst of monsoons in India. The intensified low pressure in fact gave rise to sever cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in this peak season of tropical cyclones. Ashobhaa has adversely affected a lot of lives in our country and the heavy rainfalls have flooded various cities in India. For a country which depends too much on the monsoons, it is a lesson to learn, for the crops were ruined due to flooding of fields!


It's high time the world is seriously concerned about GLOBAL WARMING and it's ill effects. The effects have been very vocal this year in our country and several others, primarily in the tropical region. In fact the trend has been set for quite some years now - UNPREDICTABILITY!


Carbon Trading is a highly politicized thing in the world today. But I would rather be concerned about countries maintaining their personal quota of GHG emissions and not dumping the needs on others in lieu of money(if you know what I mean)!